Stable Swedish forest property market in 2025 - Limited price movements despite local pressures

The Swedish forest property market was characterised by stability and modest price movements throughout 2025, despite significant local pressures linked to timber market conditions, industrial restructuring and extensive forest damage caused by Storm Johannes. Svefa’s latest compilation shows that price development at national level has been slightly positive, with an average increase of approximately 1 per cent over the past six months, reaching around SEK 666 per cubic metre of standing timber (m³sk).

Price levels remain highest in Skåne County, which further strengthened its position with an increase to approximately SEK 1,100 per m³sk – the highest recorded level in the country. Elsewhere, price development has been broadly even across Sweden, with no clear deviations in percentage terms.

“The forest property market is showing remarkable resilience. Despite substantial local pressures, we are seeing only limited price movements at national level,” says Paul Nord, Head of Business Area Forestry & Agriculture at Svefa.

Minor regional differences – no pronounced outliers

No region stands out clearly in either a positive or negative direction. The majority of counties recorded price changes within a range of 0–3 per cent over the past six months, underscoring the overall stability of the market. During this period, Värmland County posted the strongest increase, at approximately 4.4 per cent, while on an annual basis the strongest development was seen in Dalarna County, with an increase of around 7.5 per cent.

Only two counties recorded price declines over the past six months, and even there the changes were very limited, at approximately –1.2 and –0.6 per cent respectively.

Local impacts of Storm Johannes

Storm Johannes affected Sweden during the Christmas and New Year period of 2025. The impact was most severe in Gävleborg and Västernorrland counties. Initial inventories indicate damage in the range of 10–12 million cubic metres of timber, compared with Sweden’s normal annual felling volume of approximately 90 million cubic metres.

For forest owners, contractors and the forest industry in the affected areas, the damage is expected to have a significant impact both in the short term and through long-term changes to the forest landscape. The storm-felled volumes have not yet fully entered the market, but Svefa’s assessment is that a local timber surplus will gradually emerge over coming periods.

This is expected to reinforce the timber price decline that already began during the autumn in the affected regions, even though parts of the storm-felled timber will be transported to neighbouring areas. For a forest industry under pressure, the increased timber supply may therefore contribute to improved purchasing conditions which – combined with a gradually strengthening economic climate – could support improved profitability over time.

To date, no clear price or market effects attributable to the storm can be observed in the forest property market.

“Experience from previous storms shows that forest owners tend to be resilient. Rather than selling under pressure, many choose to retain their properties and work long-term with restoration and adaptation,” says Paul Nord, Head of Business Area Forestry & Agriculture at Svefa.

Capital inflows following the storm may drive future demand

Forest owners in storm-affected areas have in many cases received capital through timber sales and insurance compensation. Historically, such capital has often been reinvested in new forest assets, primarily in the local area.

“Svefa therefore assesses that these regions may develop into distinct sub-markets, with potential for increased demand over time – particularly during the period 2027–2030,” says Paul Nord.

“Future development will, however, depend on the broader market environment, where factors such as interest rates, timber prices, the economic cycle, trade policy conditions and perceived security continue to play a decisive role. In a broader economic upturn, price increases for forest properties are expected to occur first in metropolitan-adjacent regions, before spreading to other parts of the country. Storm-affected areas are expected to develop as their own sub-markets, where local conditions will be of particular importance,” concludes Paul Nord, Head of Business Area Forestry & Agriculture at Svefa.